Sup, nerds!

Here’s what you’re getting in today’s edition:

• 💅 This is cool: Good news: the sky isn’t falling

• 🔎 This seems important: Bad news: market sentiment is in the toilet

• 🤝 Partner: The first AI-powered startup unlocking the “billionaire economy” for your benefit​

• 🔪 Let's dissect this: A friend of crypto returns to the White House

• 💡 Bellwethers in Web3: Rex Wong, Hollo AI

Terms used in this edition (click for an explanation, or ask Web(GPT)3!):
Bull runs.

💅 This is cool:

Good News: The Sky Isn’t Falling

In one sentence: BTC reached its latest all-time high of ~$73k on Mar 13, which means (according to historical patterns) July 13 marks a potential beginning for crypto’s next leg up.

You know that scene from S3E4 of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia?

The one where Frank pushes one of the McPoyle brothers off a roof?

…but then the camera zooms out showing it was less than a one story drop, and we (as viewers) learn that McPoyle was never in any real danger.

Yeah, well there’s a lesson to be learned there:

When in doubt, zoom out.

The crypto markets feel like they’re in a tough spot right now (and they could well be), but before we go and hit the panic button — which we’ll do in the next article — let’s set some context, by first zooming out.

Like, out out. Back to previous bull runs.

What you’ll notice is that after hitting new all-time highs, Bitcoin has a tendency to consolidate within a range, and ping-pong sideways for 4-5 months, before moving up again.

Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high of ~$73k on March 13, 2024 — which means July 13 (roughly) marks a potential beginning for the crypto market’s next leg up.

Is it a perfect predictor? No. It’s hand wavey as all heck!

The point of all this isn’t to predict the bottom of this short-term down trend.

Instead, it’s a process designed to keep your emotions in check.

Cause it feels like the crypto market is currently hanging by a thread, from a 100 story skyscraper…

But, for now, it’s still within the parameters of previous bull cycle behavior.

🥇 Want the news before anyone else?

🔎 This seems important:

Bad News: Market Sentiment Is in the Toilet (And So Are Prices)

In one sentence: Whales used news of the Mt Gox creditor repayment to push BTC all the way down to $59.1k, collecting hundreds of millions in leverage along the way.

If you buy crypto with your own money, it’s up to you when you sell.

If you buy crypto with borrowed money (aka: leverage), it’s up to your lender to decide when you sell.

…and anyone with an internet connection can see where these ‘forced selling points’ are accumulating, using something like CoinAnk.

So, say Bitcoin is sitting around $64k, and there’s a hundreds of millions of potential forced selling that will take place around $61k…

Large BTC holders (aka: whales) are incentivized to sell a big chunk of their holdings → push the price down to $61k → trigger these forced sales → pushing the price even lower → at which point these whales can buy back in at a discount.

(Essentially moving money from the pockets of leveraged buyers, to their own).

Yeah, well — that’s what happened yesterday morning, with help from the news that Mt Gox (an old Bitcoin exchange that got hacked and went under) will soon start paying billions back its creditors between July and October.

(Creditors that might want to sell their Bitcoin after not having access to it for 10 or so years).

As a result, crypto market sentiment is in the toilet, without any clear narratives in the pipeline promising to shift it.

…other than:

There’s not much leverage for whales to take out below Bitcoin’s current price, but there’s a good $1B+ for them to gobble up above it, at ~$64.6k.

Let’s hope they move things in that direction.

🤝 Partner:

The First Ai-Powered Startup Unlocking the “Billionaire Economy” for Your Benefit

It’s one of the oldest markets in the world, but until recently, the average person would never dream of investing in it. Until a Harvard data scientist and his team cracked the code with a system to identify “excess alpha.”

The best part? Everyday people are already benefiting.

The company that makes it all possible is called Masterworks, whose unique investment platform enables savvy investors to invest in blue-chip art for a fraction of the cost. Their proprietary database of art market returns provides an unrivaled quantitative edge in analyzing investment opportunities.

So far, it's been right on the money. Every one of their 16 exits has been profitable, with recent exits delivering +17.8%, +21.5%, and +35.0% net annualized returns*.

Intrigued? Web3 Daily readers can skip the waitlist with this exclusive referral link.

_{*Past performance is not indicative of future returns, investing involves risk. See disclosures masterworks.com/cd.}

🔪 Let's dissect this:

A Friend of Crypto Returns to The White House

In one sentence: Carole House, the pro-crypto former director of the National Security Council, has been brought back to advise on the next steps for federal crypto policy in the US.

You know that famous quote: "Show me your friends and I'll show you your future"?

Soooo the Biden Administration just rehired Carole House.

Who’s Carole House?

She used to be a director on the National Security Council focused on cybersecurity and digital innovation.

Oh, and she’s pro-crypto.

Ms. House - who co-authored the White House’s 2022 executive order on “Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” - has been brought back to advise on the next steps for federal crypto policy in the US.

In her words: “[I am] honored to have been called to return to service of absolutely critical mission sets that are necessary to shape the future of secure and trustworthy digital economies.”

This comes as Republicans have continued to promise positive policies for the crypto industry if elected in November.

Could this just be a political play to get some more votes?

Maybe. But if better crypto policy in the US is the result — we say butter us up!

Either way, both parties making positive moves towards balanced crypto policies?

That’s a win-win.

💡 Bellwethers in Web3

"Bellwether's in Web3," is a daily profile series recorded live with Nolcha Shows and Movement Labs in collaboration with Bellwether Culture. Check out the latest video below.

Interview: Rex Wong, CEO of Hollo AI

Rex is a serial entrepreneur with over 30 years of experience in the Internet, technology, media and software industries. He is the CEO & co-founder of Famecast Media, an all-in-one technology and branding platform for Creators, and the co-founder of iVideoSmart, a global Internet TV network with over 500 million addressable users.

Rex has founded and run multiple startups and achieved numerous successful exits creating shareholder value in excess of a billion dollars. His companies have won numerous awards including Best of CES, Best of Internet World, Red Herring 100 and Always On 100.

Get in touch: [email protected]